When the Paradigm Shifts!!

By Paul Winters

 

 

 

 

 

"Sensible women don't want to vote."  Grover Cleveland, 1905.

"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk."  Harry Warner, 1927.

"The committee sat and sat and sat, til every sensible plan was crushed as flat as a pancake."  Charles H. Spurgeon. 1892.

 

I dredged these quotations up from yesteryear, not only because they dramatize some points made later in this article, but to point out that human behavior today isn't much different from our forefathers.  The world's body of knowledge has increased dramatically, but our reactions to change are still predictable.

A Paradigm is a set of rules or an established way of thinking.  It defines the boundaries of knowledge and technology, and within those boundaries it tells us what should be done to be successful.

A Paradigm shift occurs when a new set of rules or boundaries is created and the methods needed for success must change.  It is caused by a radical change in the environment brought on by new players, new ideas, or new technology.  A Paradigm shift is to change what a hurricane is to breeze.

There are two levels of innovation.  One is incremental and enhances the prevailing Paradigm.  It requires only small adjustments in practices and methods and is reasonably acceptable to most people.

Fundamental innovation is one that either creates or anticipates a major shift in the Paradigm.  It is vehemently resisted, because it destroys present investment in technology and practices.

The recognition of a fundamental innovation, or what I call the Life Cycle of a New Idea, follows a predictable pattern:  THE JOKE, THE THREAT, and THE OBVIOUS. 

When the new idea first comes alive, the experts tend to laugh at it.  Why, you may ask?  Experts laugh because of their enormous investment in the current technology.  They become so enamored with it that they can no longer see around the corner to the new technology.  Remember that a Paradigm shift renders the current technology obsolete. 

At the second phase, people recognize that the new idea is real and is not going away.  Legitimate concern exists over what standard will ultimately prevail, e.g., VCR recording standard of Beta versus VHS.  People tend to dig moats and build walls to control or slow down the introduction of the technology.  The policies are emotional and sometimes rooted in fears of change and the unknowns. 

One stalling method used during this stage is to require a cost/benefit analysis or Return on Investment (ROI).  It is a great delaying tactic and is a demand that is almost impossible to comply with. 

In the last phase the Paradigm shift is obvious to all.  Only at this stage are all the parameters for an ROI available.  Unfortunately, since the benefits are so obvious, it is no longer of much value to make the computation.  This is also the stage that, if the technology is not adopted, the business may no longer remain competitive in the market place.

There are many examples of the Paradigm shift throughout history: bow and arrow, gunpowder, tanks, airplanes, telephone, automobiles, electricity.  One of the modern examples is the personal computer.  In the data processing industry, the original PCs (remember the Apple) were considered toys and only useful for playing games. 

Then some forward thinkers applied the technology to business and created the first spreadsheet program (VisiCalc).  That propelled the PC from the JOKE to the threat.  Traditional data processing reacted by instituting PC policies and standards to control who would use them and how they would be used.  The financial people, who traditionally controlled the data processing function, also required the ROI computation.

Forward thinkers looked at the PC as an analytical and processing tool requiring less investment in time and programming cost.  This led to a faster response in the market place and improvement in the bottom line.  The Paradigm shift represented by the PC has taken less than 15 years to get from the joke to the obvious.

As we are continually compressing all of our operating cycles, I expect that Paradigm shifts will occur more frequently.  Recognizing them can be critical to the survival of a business. 

Forward thinking people recognize a new idea's application to their business.  The benefits mushroom as employees find creative ways to apply it to their jobs.  Many of these benefits were unknown in the beginning, which obviously makes it difficult to incorporate them into a ROI.

Now don't get me wrong.  This doesn't mean that management should blindly allow introduction of all new ideas.  Prudent managers continually evaluate the impact of new concepts that surface. 

But managers must not resist change for the wrong reasons.  They must develop a means of looking around the blind corner of knowledge and visualize the positive impacts of the technology.  They must evaluate the negative aspect of not introducing the technology into their business.

In examining new ideas a properly conducted strategic planning process separates the knowns from the unknowns and the logic from the emotion.  Only then can the impact of the Paradigm or the Paradigm shift be evaluated against the future direction of the business.